What the fans want, what the fans buy: Online Sales Analysis year-end 2011

Brigid asked:
What manga would draw you to a comic shop?

“That actually raises an interesting question: You can buy Naruto anywhere, but Twin Spica is hard to find in a bookstore—I would make a special trip for that, but I can see the opposite point of view as well—retailers want to stock what sells. So let me throw this question to the readers: Which manga would entice you to do your shopping in a comic shop?”

##

Not every reader has access to the kind of numbers I have (though I certainly share quite a bit) and everyone has their own favorites — but I recently compiled the 15-week chart for the end of 2011 [18 Sep 2011 through 1 Jan 2012] so I can maybe answer Brigid’s question with a bit more, rigor than most.

Let’s start with the top selling series. ICv2 has already released their top 25 Manga Properties for 2011 and their list is going to look a lot like mine — though theirs is “based on interviews with retailers, distributors, and manufacturers” and I compile online sales data instead.

Here’s ICv2’s Top 10

1. Naruto, Viz Media
2. Bleach, Viz Media
3. Vampire Knight, Viz Media
4. Sailor Moon, Kodansha Comics
5. Black Butler, Yen Press
6. Blackbird, Viz Media
7. Fullmetal Alchemist, Viz Media
8. Rosario + Vampire, Viz Media
9. Soul Eater, Yen Press
10. One Piece, Viz Media

And here’s my top 15 from Q4 2011:

1. ↑4 (5) : Sailor Moon – Kodansha Comics [16,019.7] ::
2. ↔0 (2) : Naruto – Viz Shonen Jump [11,156.0] ::
3. ↔0 (3) : Maximum Ride – Yen Press [10,796.1] ::
4. ↓-3 (1) : Black Butler – Yen Press [10,697.3] ::
5. ↓-1 (4) : Vampire Knight – Viz Shojo Beat [10,208.8] ::
6. ↑4 (10) : Pokemon – Vizkids [8,073.2] ::
7. ↔0 (7) : Negima! – Del Rey [7,508.1] ::
8. ↑4 (12) : Warriors – HC/Tokyopop [7,375.6] ::
9. ↑5 (14) : Fullmetal Alchemist – Viz [6,987.1] ::
10. ↓-2 (8) : Black Bird – Viz Shojo Beat [6,748.6] ::
11. ↓-2 (9) : Bleach – Viz Shonen Jump [6,537.1] ::
12. ↑6 (18) : Blue Exorcist – Viz Shonen Jump Advanced [5,676.4] ::
13. ↑29 (42) : xxxHolic – Del Rey [5,663.0] ::
14. ↓-8 (6) : Ouran High School Host Club – Viz Shojo Beat [5,636.1] ::
15. ↑12 (27) : Death Note – Viz Shonen Jump Advanced [5,565.9] ::

[see more]

First, I report things a little differently: You can see that from August to December, Sailor Moon went from 5th place to 1st, Fullmetal Alchemist and xxxHolic [both nearing final volumes] were also on the rise, as was Death Note [thanks to the omnibus-style ‘black editions’]

There is also that pesky number at the end, which is my Score. Since Amazon doesn’t report volumes sold, neither can I, but my score might be considered very roughly equivalent: Sailor Moon likely outsold Death Note 3-to-1, for example — or at the very least, Sailor Moon was in my top 10 three times as often.

The goal of my process is not only to rank the top 10, or 25, or 2500 manga for any given timeframe but also to determine vectors: motion up and down the charts, which titles are strong new releases, which are even stronger in pre-orders.

Speaking of preorders: I run that chart as well; here’s a top 10

8. ↑73 (81) : Sailor Moon 3 – Kodansha Comics, Jan 2012 [4,744.6] ::
18. ↑53 (71) : Sailor Moon 4 – Kodansha Comics, Mar 2012 [3,804.1] ::
19. ↑698 (717) : Sailor Moon 5 – Kodansha Comics, Apr 2012 [3,646.3] ::
84. ↑3143 (3227) : Sailor Moon 6 – Kodansha Comics, Jun 2012 [1,711.9] ::
93. ↑355 (448) : Negima! 33 – Kodansha Comics, Jan 2012 [1,593.5] ::
117. ↑1056 (1173) : Negima! 34 – Kodansha Comics, Apr 2012 [1,330.1] ::
121. ↑475 (596) : Dance in the Vampire Bund 11 – Seven Seas, Jan 2012 [1,319.7] ::
128. ↑531 (659) : Black Butler 8 – Yen Press, Jan 2012 [1,217.8] ::
136. ↑1025 (1161) : Naruto 54 – Viz Shonen Jump, Mar 2012 [1,135.5] ::
145. ↑731 (876) : Private Teacher 2 – DMP Juné, Jan 2012 [1,066.0] ::

[see more]

We’re still looking at the same timeframe, the last 15 weeks of 2011. The top 4 pre-orders over the fall were the next four volumes of Sailor Moon — in the case of vol. 6, folks were ordering it 6 months or more before it would even come out, likely as soon as they caught wind of a link or found it themselves online.

I hate to characterize ICv2 as the ‘direct market’ — but in some ways that is their target audience. I think this also explains why they have Sailor Moon as only the #4 manga property, while for me it was solidly #1 and has been for over 6 months.

…Sailor Moon was obviously performing better online. This raises an obvious question, though: If I’m a LCS or small bookstore owner, why would I stock titles that are already selling online? Haven’t any prospective customers already bought their books?

Yes, and no. Amazon only does about 20-30% of trade book sales [varies by quarter, and yes, expanding: source], and please note the barriers to entry: to shop from Amazon you need either large stacks of gift cards (not so common) or a valid credit card. If you still feel the manga market is primarily tweens and teens from 12 to (say) 22, then you’ve identified a market that is desperate for the books but can’t (always) buy online.

If you compare my list to ICv2, you might also notice I’m heavier in Kodansha & Yen, and not as deep in Viz — though the Shonen Jump marquee titles are all there. I think this is reflective of book store (and Wal-Mart) stocking patterns — you can buy Naruto anywhere, as noted. Outside of Shonen Jump, though, things get dicier.

##

One way I used to cut through the haze (back in 2008) was to post a ‘Midlist’ Chart, noted at least once as “denarutofied for your convenience and my sanity”: the concept was to exclude the top 5 (or 10, or 15) series (that even back in 2008 were already running into dozens of volumes) so we could see what else was selling.

Still playing with the same data set [last 15 weeks of 2011] here’s a new top 10 minus the top 5 properties:

1. ↑8 (9) : Yotsuba&! 10 – Yen Press, Oct 2011 [4,613.5] ::
2. ↑18 (20) : Fullmetal Alchemist 26 – Viz, Sep 2011 [3,550.8] ::
3. ↑18 (21) : Rosario+Vampire Season II 6 – Viz Shonen Jump Advanced, Oct 2011 [3,541.3] ::
4. ↑19 (23) : Negima! 31 – Kodansha Comics, Sep 2011 [3,454.8] ::
5. ↑20 (25) : Warriors SkyClan & The Stranger 1 – HC/Tokyopop, Jul 2011 [3,222.1] ::
6. ↑20 (26) : xxxHolic 17 – Kodansha Comics, Sep 2011 [3,187.9] ::
7. ↑20 (27) : Pokemon Black & White 2 – Vizkids, Jul 2011 [3,176.6] ::
8. ↑ (28) : Negima! 32 – Kodansha Comics, Nov 2011 [3,110.0] ::
9. ↑20 (29) : Pokemon Black & White 3 – Vizkids, Sep 2011 [3,054.1] ::
10. ↑20 (30) : Black Bird 10 – Viz Shojo Beat, Sep 2011 [3,048.2] ::

[in the list above and the following Midlist rankings, the number in parentheses is the actual ranking, Autumn 2011, and I renumbered this top 10 to show how many ranks each title ‘jumps’]

Next, Let’s eliminate the top 10 series.

1. ↑8 (9) : Yotsuba&! 10 – Yen Press, Oct 2011 [4,613.5] ::
2. ↑19 (21) : Rosario+Vampire Season II 6 – Viz Shonen Jump Advanced, Oct 2011 [3,541.3] ::
3. ↑23 (26) : xxxHolic 17 – Kodansha Comics, Sep 2011 [3,187.9] ::
4. ↑29 (33) : Bleach 36 – Viz Shonen Jump, Sep 2011 [2,968.2] ::
5. ↑29 (34) : Skip Beat! 25 – Viz Shojo Beat, Oct 2011 [2,942.3] ::
6. ↑30 (36) : Pandora Hearts 7 – Yen Press, Oct 2011 [2,898.6] ::
7. ↑32 (39) : Blue Exorcist 4 – Viz Shonen Jump Advanced, Oct 2011 [2,800.4] ::
8. ↑32 (40) : Death Note vols 1-13 box set – Viz Shonen Jump Advanced, Oct 2008 [2,793.2] ::
9. ↑34 (43) : Ouran High School Host Club 17 – Viz Shojo Beat, Dec 2011 [2,633.7] ::
10. ↑34 (44) : Berserk 35 – Dark Horse, Oct 2011 [2,632.7] ::

And now the top 15.

1. ↑8 (9) : Yotsuba&! 10 – Yen Press, Oct 2011 [4,613.5] ::
2. ↑19 (21) : Rosario+Vampire Season II 6 – Viz Shonen Jump Advanced, Oct 2011 [3,541.3] ::
3. ↑31 (34) : Skip Beat! 25 – Viz Shojo Beat, Oct 2011 [2,942.3] ::
4. ↑32 (36) : Pandora Hearts 7 – Yen Press, Oct 2011 [2,898.6] ::
5. ↑39 (44) : Berserk 35 – Dark Horse, Oct 2011 [2,632.7] ::
6. ↑39 (45) : Highschool of the Dead 4 – Yen Press, Oct 2011 [2,626.4] ::
7. ↑39 (46) : One Piece 58 – Viz Shonen Jump, Sep 2011 [2,582.2] ::
8. ↑40 (48) : Cardcaptor Sakura Omnibus 2 – Dark Horse, Dec 2010 [2,566.2] ::
9. ↑41 (50) : Finder Series 4 Prisoner in the View Finder – DMP Juné, Aug 2011 [2,511.1] ::
10. ↑43 (53) : Soul Eater 7 – Yen Press, Oct 2011 [2,357.2] ::

And now a top 25: in addition to the exclusions above, now we’re skipping Highschool of the Dead (Yen Press), Yotsuba&! (Yen), One Piece (Shonen Jump), Pandora Hearts (Yen), Legend of Zelda (Vizkids), Soul Eater (Yen), Rosario+Vampire (Shonen Jump Advanced), Dengeki Daisy (Shojo Beat), Skip Beat! (Shojo Beat), & the View Finder series (DMP Juné) — note the top ranking volumes of each of the series are still in the top 40 overall — and we’re still left with

1. ↑43 (44) : Berserk 35 – Dark Horse, Oct 2011 [2,632.7] ::
2. ↑46 (48) : Cardcaptor Sakura Omnibus 2 – Dark Horse, Dec 2010 [2,566.2] ::
3. ↑56 (59) : Spice & Wolf (manga) 5 – Yen Press, Oct 2011 [2,253.4] ::
4. ↑57 (61) : Battle Royale (novel) – Viz Haikasoru, Mar 2003 [2,177.7] ::
5. ↑59 (64) : D. Gray-Man 21 – Viz Shonen Jump Advanced, Nov 2011 [2,141.4] ::
6. ↑62 (68) : Witch & Wizard 1 – Yen Press, Sep 2011 [2,000.3] ::
7. ↑63 (70) : Drops of God 1 – Vertical, Oct 2011 [1,894.6] ::
8. ↑65 (73) : Shugo Chara! 12 – Kodansha Comics, Sep 2011 [1,867.5] ::
9. ↑66 (75) : Bakuman 7 – Viz Shonen Jump, Oct 2011 [1,844.5] ::
10. ↑67 (77) : Vampire Kisses Graveyard Games 1 – HC/Tokyopop, Sep 2011 [1,811.5] ::

…a short list: even (and especially?) after eliminating so many worthy books all of these manga volumes are still Top 100 titles. (and if these aren’t series you’re already familiar with, if I were a shop owner I’d endeavor to learn a few.)

If all you have room for is a single run of bookcases along a medium sized wall [say 10-15 ft.] that is still space for 800-1500 manga volumes [do the math] : Enough for every extant volume in the Top 20 manga series [yes, including One Piece & Naruto] and some others besides.